Predictions for the World
Here are a few predictions for the World in 5-10 years time:
- Turkey and Poland will continue to grow and outpace the rest of Europe. Turkey will strengthen ties in the Middle East and become a much bigger player in the world market. While Poland will keep increasing their production and its lack of debt will see it grow while other countries are dragged down by austerity measures. Watch this space.
- Sanctions on Iran will increase, as Iran continues along their route of enriching Uranium for “Nuclear Power”. This will see Oil prices rocket up as tensions increase and countries in the surrounding areas start to arm themselves in fear of Iran; Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey etc. Fears of an attack on Israel will push up pressure on a pre-emptive air strike from the USA, but this will not happen, as there isn’t enough accuracy for it to ensure all the weapons could be destroyed – the USA still has a more military power than Iran and will continue to wait. Iran will withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (which inspects the uranium Iran use). The sanctions will have an increasingly debilitating effect on Iran’s economy, lowering the currency and living standards. The Iranian public will resist (there are already signs of a lack of faith in the government) as they did in 2009, with a new government set up in its wake, one that will be far less inclined to use a nuclear bomb. Of course that will all change if the USA does decide on a pre-emptive strike, which will only alienate Iran from the west more.
- The USA will continue to lose influence and rivals will continue to take more risks against them. Looking back at Russia’s attack on Georgia in 2009 and China’s aggressive policy to neighbouring islands recently, they are incidents that wouldn’t have taken place a decade before when America was in its prime. So expect Russia and China in particular to take more chances as they see the USA’s power dwindling.
- The UK will gradually move away from a reliance on the financial sector and move back towards production, though it will be a rocky road that will see the UK struggle for a few years yet with huge debts and a rebalancing of the economy needing investment to take place. The UK will also benefit from its universities producing more educated young people into the country, which as the technological and science sectors grow, will see the UK benefit in new breakthroughs.
- For the next 10 years, fossil fuels will continue to reign as the most dominant energy resource. Renewable energies account for less than 20% of the market and I cannot see this changing as China and India continue to grow in population and the USA and European Union continue their high consumption.
- Greece will default sooner or later and leave the Euro. This seems inevitable; Greece realistically cannot pay its debts and is just adding more debt onto it as they seek help from its fellow Euro members. As I have stated in a previous article: https://economicinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/24/how-similar-are-the-greeks-situation-to-the-argentina-of-2001/ Argentina were in a similar position (in fact Greece owes much more debt and doesn’t have the same resources as Argentina) and they defaulted. This would see them leave the Euro and maybe even cause defaults in Ireland and Portugal; that are in very poor positions as well.
- China will overtake the USA as the largest economy in the world by 2016. They will keep growing as the USA and Europe see their economies decline. Germany, seen as their rivals in the exporting market, will be dragged down by the Euro and China (free from any such constraints) will grow in production and influence. Whether they will use their growing military power is debateable, they will already have high economic power, which in the modern world can be even more useful.
- And finally, technological changes will see the World become much more connected. Nanotechnology could revolutionise the world, while in Quantum physics the discovery of what dark matter really is could change our perception of everything.
Will these predictions come true? Who knows, but there are exciting times ahead of us regardless; what now seems set in stone can be revealed to be nothing more than a sandcastle, while what seems like a faze can become a new trend for the next decade. Why not comment and suggest your own predictions.
*Predictions are invalid if it is indeed the end of the world this year*